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In England, the risk of flooding due to the climate crisis is having a direct impact on the value of residential property. According to a new study by researchers at Bayes Business School, one in six properties in the country will be at risk of flooding by 2050.

Climate change is having multiple repercussions on the planet. One of the most worrying threats is rising sea levels, leading to major flood risks, particularly in coastal areas. And this phenomenon also has an impact on real estate, as reports recent research from Bayes Business School in London, UK. The research looked specifically at the impact the climate crisis may have on the value of residential property in England.

According to the researchers' estimates, residential properties in England at risk of flooding are selling at 8.14% lower on average to non-affected properties. For the most at-risk properties, this rate could rise as high as 32.2%, the study estimates. To come to these conclusions, the researchers drew on several sources. In particular, they sifted through 4.8 million advertisements and 3.2 million transactions concluded between 2006 and 2022, collected from the Rightmove property listing site (the UK's leading such site).

But the study does not stop at property values. Using data from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and based on a method similar to that used by insurance companies, it also assesses the risk of flooding from river, rain and sea sources. And according to the results obtained by the study authors, the average flood risk of properties sold in England between 2006 and 2021 is estimated at 8%, a rate similar to that of unsold properties (8.63%).

According to the study, one in six properties in England are at risk of flooding and about half of those can be considered as high-risk. The regions most at risk are East Anglia, the North West and Yorkshire, where between 13% and 18% of properties are affected. "Semi-detached and terraced properties (9% flood risk probability) are more vulnerable to flooding since prevention measures -- such as improved windows, doors, vents and pipes -- will only be effective in conjunction with neighbors versus detached houses with only a 7% flood risk probability," the researchers explain. Between 2050 and 2080, the risk of flooding at property level is set to increase by a further 8%, the study estimates.

"With sea levels and unpredictability of climate set to rise in years to come, this poses a great threat to properties and the housing market -- particularly in low-income neighborhoods," says study co-author Dr. Nicole Lux, senior research fellow at Bayes Business School. The researcher, together with her colleague Dr. Alexandros Skouralis, would now like to extend the analysis of this flood risk to other European countries, such as France, Germany and Spain.

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