The probability of stronger rains has increased due to the climate crisis, an analysis by the German Meteorological Service (DWD) has found, as reported by news magazine Der Spiegel. Heavy rains led to flooding in southern Germany between May 30th and June 3rd, with record rainfall recorded locally in parts of the states Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg. Previously, downpours that led to such flooding events would be expected every 42 years. Higher average temperatures mean that the region could see similar downpours every 30 years. If the planet continues to warm to 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, the frequency of extreme precipitation and subsequent flooding could increase further to a period of about 25 years. There is, however, large uncertainty in these predictions, reported Der Spiegel.

As temperatures rise, air’s capacity to absorb water vapour increases. Increased absorption capacity, together with more evaporation over the warmer sea surfaces, leads to more moisture absorption in the air over the sea. If that air then moves onto land, there is more water in the air to precipitate, meaning a heavier downpour. The analysis found that the rains causing the floods in southern Germany were up to 10 percent heavier than they likely would have been without manmade global warming.

Environment minister Steffi Lemke said that frequent flooding is the “new reality” for Germany in response to the recent floods. The floods have resulted in calls for increased funding for adaptation and protection measures to help Germans deal with disasters, with some saying homes shouldn’t be rebuilt in areas high at risk of flooding.